UFC Vancouver: Full Card Breakdown & Picks

Overview

The UFC goes to Canada for a possible number 1 contender fight in the middleweight division, we’re going through every matchup from top to bottom. Let’s get into it.

Melissa Croden vs Tainara Lisboa

This is a fight no one should really be betting on. Both women are primarily strikers, but I give Lisboa the edge in a clean technical fight. That said, Croden is a bully who will likely look to clinch and press Lisboa up against the fence. She also outsizes her opponent, which could pose problems. Lisboa is coming off a knee injury and didn’t look great against Luana Santos, but I still see her as the more polished striker.

Pick: Tainara Lisboa

Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui

Bekoev’s first couple UFC performances have been impressive. Yousri is a former kickboxer who holds a win over Alex Pereira, which will be highlighted in the lead-up. But Bekoev is the more complete fighter, able to mix in wrestling and threaten with power. I expect him to overwhelm Belgaroui with pressure and grappling.

Pick: Azamat Bekoev

Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira

Luciano is the real deal. She throws with volume, welcomes chaos, and just went to war with Sam Hughes, no easy task. This one hinges on her takedown defense. If she keeps the fight standing, her aggression and output should win rounds. I see her piecing up Ravena on the feet.

Pick: Stephanie Luciano

Kyle Prepolec vs Drew Dober

There’s always the chance Dober’s chin is shot at this point, and Prepolec capitalizes. But if Dober’s durability holds up, he should outstrike Kyle across three rounds. I’m not convinced Prepolec is UFC-level, but Dober’s line has no value. Sit this one out.

Pick: Drew Dober

Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos

Let’s be honest, Barlow hasn’t looked great. He’s had close fights with weak competition and is now coming off a KO loss. He’ll have the speed advantage, but Santos may walk him down with pressure and size. Barlow struggles on the back foot, which could be costly. Slight lean Barlow, but not touching that price tag.

Pick: Danny Barlow

Bruno Silva vs Hyun Sung Park

Silva’s been in deep waters lately, facing top-tier opponents like Kape and Josh Van. But he’s aging and has taken damage. Park, by contrast, is fresher, can wrestle a bit, and has solid striking. Silva is dangerous with power, but Park has more tools to win over three rounds.

Pick: Hyun Sung Park

Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant

Davey Grant is a dog. Jourdain is slick, especially with submissions, but he’s not taking Grant down easily. We’ve seen Grant survive bad positions (like against Blackshear) and come back to win. This likely turns into a fun, competitive striking match, and I don’t trust Jourdain to pull away. Could be a greasy split, give me the underdog.

Pick: Davey Grant

Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola

Frevola is always a danger early, but his chin is a major liability. Nelson is slick in the pocket and could land clean if Frevola comes out wild. This is a coin flip, especially with both guys coming off brutal KOs. But Nelson has the home crowd edge, and I’m leaning his way.

Pick: Kyle Nelson

Cody Gibson vs Aoriqileng

Aoriqileng’s been out a year, last seen losing to Raul Rosas. Gibson should be better everywhere, he just needs to avoid a brawl. If he sticks to wrestling, he can control this fight. Just needs to avoid the pocket exchanges and stay disciplined.

Pick: Cody Gibson

Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

This is your classic striker vs grappler matchup. Jasmine has looked great with top control and finishes lately, but Fiorot’s movement and stance make her very tough to takedown. If Fiorot can stuff early shots and keep it standing, she should style on Jasmine and earn a clear win.

Pick: Manon Fiorot

Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi

Zahabi is a lock this weekend. Vera hasn’t looked dangerous in ages and struggles with volume-based fighters. Zahabi will keep him behind on the cards with consistent jabs and output. Unless Vera finds a big moment late, I don’t see him winning.

Pick: Aiemann Zahabi

Kevin Holland vs Mike Malott

Holland is one of the most untrustworthy fighters on the roster. Malott, on the other hand, is composed and clean with his counters. He doesn’t make many mistakes and should find an opening when Holland overextends. I expect Malott to hurt him on a counter and put him away.

Pick: Mike Malott

Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen

RDR is physically overwhelming. He uses size and pressure extremely well and will look to smother Allen from the jump. Allen has decent defensive grappling and could last all five rounds, but I see him losing the positional battle throughout.

Pick: Reinier de Ridder

Final Thoughts

This is a sneaky fun card. While it may lack big names, there are plenty of matchups with tight margins and interesting stylistic clashes. If you’re betting, be cautious, there’s value in a few lines, but a lot of volatile matchups too. We’ll see how the lines move during fight week, but as it stands, these are the reads I feel strongest about.

Stay sharp. Bet smart. Let’s cash.